الجمعة، 23 مارس 2012
السبت، 3 مايو 2008
Make $27,000 in 4 Minutes Flat - Trading Forex
Quite a statement I think you will agree, but can it be done?The ruling bodies for the foreign currency off-exchange markets are collectively the National Futures Association (NFA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the USA and in the UK the Financial Services Authority (FSA). They do not like to see statements like the one on this headline title.I think that it would be fair to say that the NFA, CFTC, and FSA are trying to make sure that people are not encouraged to grab every penny that they can get their hands on and dive headlong into the forex market, possibly putting themselves and their family into financial crisis. What they want is for the foreign exchange market to be perceived in a balanced way, and for people to understand the risks that are involved in trading within it.OK, that said let us take a balanced look at the forex market.Most retail traders enter trades using very high leverage - often 100:1 and sometimes more. This means that quite small movements in the price differentials of currency pairings will create large gains or losses in direct proportion to the amount of leverage employed, and because of this, every trader should be aware that it is highly possible to sustain big losses as well as make big gains.Of all of the participants entering the forex market, it is widely predicted that 95% will sustain at least a partial loss of their investment and only 5% will make a profit.But is it possible to make $27,000 in 4 minutes flat? Actually the answer is YES! But by the same token it is also possible to lose $27,000 in 4 minutes flat too.Are the governing bodies right to be so touchy about attention grabbing headlines that seem to infer the possibility of great gains? In my opinion they are.The problem is an old one. The few ruthless operators that lure in the unwary for the sole purpose of separating them from their cash casts a shadow over both the good and bad.The rooting out of these unscrupulous entities is to be commended, but on the other hand, is it fair and balanced to be forced to play down the good side of this great industry?I do not think that it is.If you have funds that you wish to invest, and they are funds that if lost would not cause you financial hardship, then you may well wish to consider trading on the foreign exchange because it is one of the few places that it possible to turn a relatively modest investment into a considerable sum of money- but not without risk.Trading on the foreign exchange is a risk business and as with any risk business one needs to have in place, a solid risk management system and a very reliable trading system. Even then a total loss of funds is still possible - as is the possibility of making a better than average return on your investment.Summing up, I would not advise forex trading to the unwary investor, nor to anyone that is already having a hard time trying to make ends meet. But for anyone that has funds that they would like to invest in a high risk high reward environment then forex may just be the right place for you.Finally, just to be clear, please read the following:-IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSUREOff-exchange foreign currency trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with off-exchange foreign currency trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts
Forex Trading Strategies for Profit for Profit
There are many different forex trading strategies as there are many different ways of achieving forex trading success but if you are devising one for yourself there are some key elements the best forex trading strategies incorporate and that the subject of this article. 1. They are Simple There is a big myth that science can help you trade and the buzz words are neural networks and artificial intelligence systems and other complicated trading systems. The problem is complex forex trading systems with to many inputs mean there are more elements to break and these systems fail in real time. The base of your forex trading strategy should be a simple trading system that will be robust in the face of ever changing brutal market conditions. 2. Objectivity The best forex trading strategies tend to be based around objective criteria and rules that are clear and do not have too much subjectivity. For example, a moving average cross over is an objective forex trading signal - Elliot wave and cycles are not and involve subjectivity. By keeping your strategy objective rather than subjective, you will keep your emotions out and stay disciplined. 3. Trade Valid Data If your forex trading strategy involves technical analysis and forex charting then you need to use valid data. Forex day trading systems don't work, as volatility in short time frames is random and prices can and do go anywhere. You need to get the odds on your side and that means trading longer term - swing trading or long term trend following.4. Breakouts Most of the top trading systems use breakout methodology, as it's a fact most major moves start from new market highs not market lows. Traders who want to get in at a lower price miss these moves - breakout traders know that the odds favour a continuation of the move when a significant level of support and resistance has been penetrated. 5. Money Management The best forex strategies know there is risk involved in any trade and manage not just the risk per trade but have their eye on the overall risk to the account and the risk of ruin. You need to take care of the losses first and if you have a sound robust currency trading system the profits will look after themselves. 6. Acting on Confirmation Many forex trading strategies liked to try and base themselves on so called scientific theories of market movement but the fact is trading is a game of odds NOT certainties and this is obvious. If markets did move to a scientific theory we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. While this is obvious many traders like to trade far out theories like: Gann Fibonacci and Elliot wave. None of them are scientific by nature and all involve subjectivity from the user - this is a contradiction in terms of a scientific theory. Predicting means you are hoping or guessing and that won't get you far in life and certainly not FX trading. 7. Realism The best forex trading strategies have realistic aims in terms of profits and while many can make triple digit profits in short periods of time over the longer term the best do 30 - 50% compounded and if you had one that did similar you would quickly compound a lot of money and be very wealthy. If you understand the above you will see that forex trading strategies that are successful tend to be simple, robust, objective and have strong money management linked to realistic goals. If you do the same in your forex trading strategy you can make a lot of money in global forex markets
Forex Trading Strategies and Forex Market Volatility
Part of developing a profitable Forex trading strategy involves being able to determine market volatility. The Forex market is open 24 hours per day and you will find it impossible to keep track of all market activities, all the time. You will need to understand the timing of various markets, particularly those in which you are trading and those that influence your trades, so that you are in a position to make the best possible decisions during your trading hours.Different markets are affected by differing market conditions. All currency pairs are subject to market volatility, but most currencies tend to become more or less volatile during certain times of the day. As a trader, you will need to have some knowledge of the currency trading system, currency pairings in different times zones and the conditions that affect their volatility.The London market is the largest and most volatile Forex market in the world since some of the largest dealing desks of large banks are located there and transactions that take place usually involve large sums of money. The London market share is about 30% of all markets. The market hours are from 2 am to 12 pm EST, which is also the time for which most transactions are completed. The benchmark established for volatility is 80 pips and more than half of the London market currency pairings are likely to reach in excess of 80 pips. It would not be uncommon for the daily range of GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY currency pairs to average more than 140 pips. The ability of these currency pairs to generate huge profits in a short amount of time appeals to traders willing to take risks in the currency trading system.Since most large market participants complete their circle of currency conversions during the London market hours, daily trade activities peak during this time, causing high volatility. Near the end of the London trading session most large investors will convert their European assets to US dollar assets in anticipation of the opening of the US market. This conversion is responsible for the increased volatility in GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY currency pairs. The New York trading session is the benchmark for US trading and it represents the second largest FOREX market. Trading hours are from 8 am and 5 pm EST. The majority of transactions occur in the US market from 8 am to noon EST. During this timeframe, the European market is still in session, which creates a market of high liquidity. Trading during this period of overlap accounts for about 70% of the currency pair trading in the European session and about 80% of currency pair trading in the US session.Other currency pairs that appeal to high-risk traders during the London market hours include the USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD currency pairs. It is not uncommon for these pairs to reach a daily range of about 100 pips. This level of volatility creates opportunities for entry into the market. In contrast, is not uncommon for the AUD/JPY, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs to reach a daily range of about 50 pips. This level of volatility is more appealing to traders who attempt to avoid risks. The level of volatility indicates that these pairs may be less likely to create a loss.The London market also overlaps with the Asian market. The Tokyo trading session is the benchmark for the Asian market. Trading hours are from 7 pm and 4 am EST. Large investors take positions in the Tokyo market in anticipation of the opening of the London session. The GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY currency pairs are also highly volatile during this timeframe of overlap. Trading during the period of overlap, which is between 2 am and 4 am, is the lowest of any trading session. Traders use these slow trading hours to position themselves for the opening of the European or US market
History of the Forex Market
Money, in one form or another, has been used by man for centuries. At first it was mainly gold or silver coins. Goods were traded versus other goods or against gold. So, the price of gold got a reference point. But as the trading of goods grew among nations, moving quantities of gold around places to settle payments of trade became cumbersome, risky and time consuming. Therefore, a system was sought by which the payment of trades could be resolved in the seller's local currency. But how much of buyer's local currency should be equal to the seller's local currency?The answer was simple. The strength of a country's currency depended on the amount of gold reserves the country preserved. So, if country A's gold reserves are double the gold reserves of country B, country A's currency will be twice in value when exchanged with the currency of country B. During the first World War, in order to meet the tremendous financing needs, paper money was created in quantities that far exceeded the gold reserves.After the cease of World War II the western allied powers tried to resolve the problem at the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire in 1944. In the first three weeks of July 1944, delegates from 45 nations gathered at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The delegates gathered to discuss the postwar recovery of Europe as well as a number of monetary issues, such as unstable exchange rates and protectionist trade policies. In the early 1940s, the United States and Great Britain developed proposals for the creation of new international financial institutions that would stabilize exchange rates and promote international trade.The delegates at Bretton Woods arrived at an agreement known as the Bretton Woods Agreement to establish a postwar international monetary system of convertible currencies, fixed exchange rates and free trade. To help these objectives, the agreement created two international institutions: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank). The aim was to render economic aid for reconstruction of postwar Europe. An initial loan of $250 million to France in 1947 was the World Bank's first act.Under the Bretton Woods Exchange System, the currencies of active nations could be changed into the US dollar at a fixed rate, and foreign central banks could change the US dollar into gold at a fixed rate. It was similar to forex trading.The United States, under President Nixon, retaliated in 1971 by devaluing the dollar and pushing realignment of currencies with the dollar. The heading European economies tried to counter the US move by adjusting their currencies in narrow band and then float jointly against the US dollar.Fortunately, this currency war did not last long and by the first half of the 1970's heading world economies gave up the fixed exchange rate system for good and floated their currencies in the exposed market. The idea was to let the market determine the value of a given currency based on the demand and supply of the currency and the economic wellness of the currency's nation, it sown the forex trading. This market is popularly known as the International Monetary Market or IMM. This IMM is not a single entity. It is the collection of all financial institutions that have any concern in foreign currencies, all over the world. Banks, Brokerages, Fund Managers, Government Central Banks and sometimes individuals, are just a few examples.Although the currency's value is dependent on the market forces, the central banks still try to keep their currency in a predefined (and highly confidential) fluctuation band as a part of their forex trading strategies. They achieve this by taking several steps
Major Forex Indicators
Certain financial indicators have a history of moving the financial markets when the actual numbers don't match consensus. This article explain what some of the better financial indicators are and the ones traders should pay close attention to when trading the forex market.APICS Survey - The APICS survey provides detailed information of the manufacturing sector. This survey is less well known than the ISM, but can also suggest trends in production. The diffusion index does not move in tandem with the ISM index each month, but sometimes the two do move in the same direction. Since manufacturing is a major sector of economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic backdrop for several investments. These surveys also play an important role in learning forex trading.Business Inventories - The degree of inventories in relation to sales is an important signal of the near-term direction of production activity. Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Growing inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the proportion of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. The business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for traversing the economy and it is greatly used while making forex trading strategies.Chain Stores Sales - It is monthly sales volumes from department, chain, discount and apparel stores. Sales are reported by the individual retailers. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending results. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good grip on where the economy is headed. Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It is significant to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year's sales. In addition, sales are normally reported for "comparable stores" in case of company mergers.Construction Spending - Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Because of their forex trading strategies, businesses only put money into construction of new factories or offices when they are sure that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home. That's why construction spending is a good indicator of the economy's momentum.Consumer Confidence - It is study of consumer attitudes concerning both the present position as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by The Conference Board. The level of consumer confidence is directly related to the intensity of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might act in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the way of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.Consumer Price Index (CPI) - It is measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the inflation rate. The CPI is the most followed indicator of inflation in the United States, some forex training institutes also keeps record of it for training purpose. Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets. By tracking the trends in inflation, whether high or low, ascending or descending, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.Current account - It is a measure of the country's international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, as well as the trends in exports and imports, are followed as indicators of trends in foreign trade. U.S. trade with foreign countries hold significant clues to economic trends here and abroad. According to forex training experts this data can directly affect all the financial markets, and particularly the foreign exchange value of the dollar
Forex Trading and Money Management
As part of your Forex trading strategy, you must be able to manage the money that you invest in trades and determine when it is advantageous to enter or exit a trade. Most trading strategies are good for determining when a trade should be entered, but not all strategies establish an exit. If your Forex trading strategy does not provide exit points, you will still need some method of determining when to exit.Profit and Loss (P/L) - Forex trading systems provide one of the easiest forms of executing and monitoring profit and loss (P/L) in investments. P/Ls in the spot market are generally measured in decimal units. A calculation of the long and short position for a leveraged currency pair will easily provide you with the amount of profit and the amount of loss.Gains to Losses - You also need a method of predicting the chance of profiting from your trades in order to decide how much money to invest in your Forex trading strategy. By calculating the ratio of gains to losses you will be able to determine if your trades are providing a higher percentage of gains than losses. If your trades are gaining then you need not invest more money into already winning trades.Risks to Reward - Since Forex trading systems involve risk, you need to able to measure the risk taken as compared to reward received. A risk/reward ratio may be determined by dividing a take-profit spread by a corresponding stop-limit spread. No rollover or interest rate differential is required. You are cautioned against allocating more than 10% of your total investment funds into a single trade as either margin or risk. Your Forex trading techniques should include enough funds to allow you to engage in multiple trades. If some trades result in loss, those losses have the potential to be recovered with other winning trades. If half or more of your trades result in loss, you need to analyze and adjust your Forex trading strategy.Limiting Losses - You may limit the amount of loss by adjusting take-profit and stop-limit orders relative to the entry market price. By raising stop-limit orders and lowering take-profit orders, you may reduce loss potential. If prices create adverse results, you may eliminate any further loss by manually liquidating the trade. If price moves are favorable, you may increase your limits. In some instances it may be advantageous to raise the stop-limit order above the market entry price. This guarantees a profit of at least the originally targeted price and at most, the newly established price.If you have taken a long position, you should avoid lowering stop-limit orders and accept a loss or trade a different currency pair. Take-profit orders should only be lowered in long positions if a reversal is anticipated. Otherwise, you should liquidate. If you have taken a short position, you should avoid increasing stop-limit orders and only increase take-profit orders in anticipation of a reversal. Many large losses are due to moving and removing stop-loss orders. The Forex trading strategy for uncertain traders should be to liquidate trades for small losses or small profits rather than hanging around to suffer a greater loss.With most Forex strategies, stop-loss orders are typically placed below and above previous highs or lows. However, you may find it advantageous to set your stops according to market volatility. Using charts of recent currency pairs you should be able to gauge shifts in volatility. This information could then be used to set stops and price objectives. This method may also be used to establish entry points in the market
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