Trading: The secret of good trading is in the tecnique

The Technical analysis - the term dry and boring enough - nevertheless, in reality is an effective way to research the dynamics of the market. For this purpose a system of special schedules - not quite as complex, as in the mathematician, is used. With their help it is possible to predict almost precisely the future direction of the movement of prices
And here we have the beginnings of a trend. Based on studies of the long term movement of the price in this or that direction. It is quite easy to analyze and define a trend
Apparently, dynamics of the market, is a series of zigzags, rising, sometimes falling,- movement on a relatively straight line. One of the basic professional qualities of the skilled trader is to be able to define timely analysis of the trend at its early stage as well as at a later stage, and to operate strictly within its frameworks. From here it is possible to deduce the main rule: Having defined a trend, never work against it

The dynamics of exchange rates

Currency is the "good" on which there is always a supply and demand. It is easy to guess, that

when demand grows for a certain currency it's price will go up. The unwillingness of traders to buy any certain currency, naturally, leads to it's price falling. Economic data are the factors which help to define the direction of a future trend
Main thing: news can be expected and unexpected
In this case the rule works: buy the rumors, we sell the facts. One more proverb: "Information is money". This is specially true in the currency market.
The market prepares for "expected" news beforehand and includes them in the price in advance. Therefore as news breaks changes of exchange rates are not usually effected. But in the case of unexpected news the market can be the most interesting. Exchange rates, can dramatically increase or decline and these sudden changes result in some traders becoming very rich and some becoming very poor in a matter of hours
It is good to apply the fundamental plan by developing and adopting a long-term strategy
Economic stability
Traders closely watch the economic development of a country: the data about the gross national product and unemployment. Investors aspire to invest in a stable and prosperous economy
An example: The Volume of retails in England for September of 0,7 % in comparison with August. Expectations of economists were planned at a rate of + 0,4 %. And a gain in sector of sales of food stuffs - 1,4 %. All this economical data should solitarily affect the rate of the English currency
The prices for energy carriers and nonferrous metals
The dynamics of the prices for oil and nonferrous metals substantially define movement of currencies, such as the American dollar, the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar
An Example: the Rise in the price of oil and mineral oil in the USA jumped up as a result of destructive actions of hurricane "Katrina". The cost of "oil" in the USA jumped up to 70 dollars for barrel. Some senators voted for the use of a strategic oil resource of the USA. All of this, certainly, reflected negatively in the dollar exchange rate in relation to the euro
Interest rates
By means of interest rates the central bank of a country has an opportunity to influence the interest rates of commercial banks, the rate of inflation in the country and the rate of national currency
The increase of interest rates leads to decrease in inflation and rise in price of national currency
The dynamics of interest rates is defined by many economic indicators; the basic being the rate of inflation. Also, important applications of influential political people are considered. Decisions on growth or decrease in rates are accepted at regular sessions of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the FOMC of the USA, the Bank of Japan and other banks
An example: the decrease in interest rates always triggers a decrease in an exchange rate of a state. As a positive example here it is possible realize the growing appeal of the dollar, due to constant increasing of the rates of the FOMC of the USA.
The political climate
The favour of investors in a country in many respects depends on its political climate, the rate of unemployment, and word. In case of political uncertainty of a country, investors often refrain from investing in its economy
An example: in 1917 in Russia there was a revolution. The enterprises with the foreign capital, and all the others, were nationalized. It, undoubtedly, caused a sharp falling of the Rouble exchange rate and the Russian securities at the international stock exchanges
The natural both technogenic phenomena
The nature and technogenic incidents - the most unpredictable factors are capable in a flash of changing e an alignment of forces in the financial markets. Consequences of accidents of extensive scale are globally reflected in all spheres of society, not excepting the currency market. There can be sharp decline of the value of of the currency of that country where there was has been an extreme situation
An example: Acts of terrorism in the USA 11.09.2001. The given accident in the USA became the reason for the sharp decline of share prices for tourist and airlines. Experts did not dare to predict the consequence of acts of terrorism in the USA for the world markets for a long time
Since oil prices have grown sharply prices for the oil they have sharply the dollar exchange rate has declined dramatically

Whither the dollar

Strong U.S. consumer price data led to a lower than expected federal reserve interest rate cut, causing the strongest one-day dollar rally against the Euro since May, 2005. By the end of the day Friday the 14th, the Euro fell 1.5 percent to 1.4412, the lowest it has been since October. This is the third week in a row that the dollar has rallied against major currencies.Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008