الجمعة، 29 فبراير 2008

Trading: The secret of good trading is in the tecnique

The Technical analysis - the term dry and boring enough - nevertheless, in reality is an effective way to research the dynamics of the market. For this purpose a system of special schedules - not quite as complex, as in the mathematician, is used. With their help it is possible to predict almost precisely the future direction of the movement of prices
And here we have the beginnings of a trend. Based on studies of the long term movement of the price in this or that direction. It is quite easy to analyze and define a trend
Apparently, dynamics of the market, is a series of zigzags, rising, sometimes falling,- movement on a relatively straight line. One of the basic professional qualities of the skilled trader is to be able to define timely analysis of the trend at its early stage as well as at a later stage, and to operate strictly within its frameworks. From here it is possible to deduce the main rule: Having defined a trend, never work against it

The dynamics of exchange rates

Currency is the "good" on which there is always a supply and demand. It is easy to guess, that
when demand grows for a certain currency it's price will go up. The unwillingness of traders to buy any certain currency, naturally, leads to it's price falling. Economic data are the factors which help to define the direction of a future trend
Main thing: news can be expected and unexpected
In this case the rule works: buy the rumors, we sell the facts. One more proverb: "Information is money". This is specially true in the currency market.
The market prepares for "expected" news beforehand and includes them in the price in advance. Therefore as news breaks changes of exchange rates are not usually effected. But in the case of unexpected news the market can be the most interesting. Exchange rates, can dramatically increase or decline and these sudden changes result in some traders becoming very rich and some becoming very poor in a matter of hours
It is good to apply the fundamental plan by developing and adopting a long-term strategy
Economic stability
Traders closely watch the economic development of a country: the data about the gross national product and unemployment. Investors aspire to invest in a stable and prosperous economy
An example: The Volume of retails in England for September of 0,7 % in comparison with August. Expectations of economists were planned at a rate of + 0,4 %. And a gain in sector of sales of food stuffs - 1,4 %. All this economical data should solitarily affect the rate of the English currency
The prices for energy carriers and nonferrous metals
The dynamics of the prices for oil and nonferrous metals substantially define movement of currencies, such as the American dollar, the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar
An Example: the Rise in the price of oil and mineral oil in the USA jumped up as a result of destructive actions of hurricane "Katrina". The cost of "oil" in the USA jumped up to 70 dollars for barrel. Some senators voted for the use of a strategic oil resource of the USA. All of this, certainly, reflected negatively in the dollar exchange rate in relation to the euro
Interest rates
By means of interest rates the central bank of a country has an opportunity to influence the interest rates of commercial banks, the rate of inflation in the country and the rate of national currency
The increase of interest rates leads to decrease in inflation and rise in price of national currency
The dynamics of interest rates is defined by many economic indicators; the basic being the rate of inflation. Also, important applications of influential political people are considered. Decisions on growth or decrease in rates are accepted at regular sessions of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the FOMC of the USA, the Bank of Japan and other banks
An example: the decrease in interest rates always triggers a decrease in an exchange rate of a state. As a positive example here it is possible realize the growing appeal of the dollar, due to constant increasing of the rates of the FOMC of the USA.
The political climate
The favour of investors in a country in many respects depends on its political climate, the rate of unemployment, and word. In case of political uncertainty of a country, investors often refrain from investing in its economy
An example: in 1917 in Russia there was a revolution. The enterprises with the foreign capital, and all the others, were nationalized. It, undoubtedly, caused a sharp falling of the Rouble exchange rate and the Russian securities at the international stock exchanges
The natural both technogenic phenomena
The nature and technogenic incidents - the most unpredictable factors are capable in a flash of changing e an alignment of forces in the financial markets. Consequences of accidents of extensive scale are globally reflected in all spheres of society, not excepting the currency market. There can be sharp decline of the value of of the currency of that country where there was has been an extreme situation
An example: Acts of terrorism in the USA 11.09.2001. The given accident in the USA became the reason for the sharp decline of share prices for tourist and airlines. Experts did not dare to predict the consequence of acts of terrorism in the USA for the world markets for a long time
Since oil prices have grown sharply prices for the oil they have sharply the dollar exchange rate has declined dramatically

Whither the dollar



Strong U.S. consumer price data led to a lower than expected federal reserve interest rate cut, causing the strongest one-day dollar rally against the Euro since May, 2005. By the end of the day Friday the 14th, the Euro fell 1.5 percent to 1.4412, the lowest it has been since October. This is the third week in a row that the dollar has rallied against major currencies.Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008

الأحد، 24 فبراير 2008

اسباب الخساره في تجاره البورصة


1- نقص المعرفة: معظم المتاجرين الجدد بالعملات لا يبذلون الوقت للمعرفة وتعلم أساسيات حركة العملة . لذلك فانه يجب عليهم في هذه الحالة عندما يكون هناك موعد لصدور أخبار اقتصادية أو تصريحات هامة أن يخرجوا من السوق بإغلاق عقودهم المفتوحة والانتظار حتى تكون هناك فرصة أخري مناسبة لدخول السوق وهذه أفضل طريقة لهم أن يدخلوا السوق فقط عندما يكون هادئا وبذلك يتجنبوا المتاجرة العشوائية أثناء الأخبار والتفكير في الحركة الفنية للسوق. -2 تكرار الدخول في نفس اليوم: عند تحديد هدف قصير في عدد النقاط ونسبة معقولة من وقف الخسارة سيجعلك تحقق بضع مئات من الدولارات يوميا ، ولكن زيادة عدد مرات الدخول مرة بعد مرة قد يجعلك عرضة للخسارة أكبر.
-3 الدخول دفعة واحدة بعدد كبير من العقود: معظم الشركات تعطيك هامش صغير للدخول والبعض يعتقد أن هذه ميزة حسنة فهم يغرونك للدخول بعدد أكبر من العقود دفعة واحدة ليحصلوا على فائدة أكبر منك ، تذكر أنه عندما ينخفض المبلغ المتبقي من حسابك للاستخدام في الهامش إلى الصفر فان البرنامج سيقوم بإخراجك من السوق بشكل آلي وفوري وإغلاق جميع عقودك وتتحمل أنت الخسارة.
-4 الاعتماد على الآخرين في اتخاذ القرار: غالبا ما يتصرف المتاجر المحترف بشكل انفرادي ويتخذ قراراته الخاصة ولا يعتمد على الآخرين لاتخاذ القرارات ، لا يوجد هناك نصف طريق أو سيارة بسائقين ، إما أن تكون أنت من يتاجر أو هناك من يتاجر لك.
-5 إساءة استخدام أوامر وقف الخسارة: وضع أوامر وقف الخسارة في موقع قريب من سعر السوق يجعله قابلا للتنفيذ في أي لحظة ، وهذا غالبا ما ترشدك إليه الكثير من البرامج لأنه في النهاية لديهم فائدة وأنت من يخسر.
-6 إساءة الاستفادة من الحسابات التجريبية : معظم الحسابات التجريبية أقرب إلى برنامج ألعاب و لا تكون حساسة مع تغير السعر لحظيا مثل الحسابات الفعلية وتعطيك الانطباع بإمكانية تحقيق الربح خاصة أثناء الحركات المحدودة للسوق و بمجرد أن تنتقل إلى الحساب الفعلي سوف تكتشف ذلك ، الحالة النفسية عندما تتعامل مع راس مال وهمي هي أنك تكون متحررا من أي خوف من الخسارة وستكون قدرتك على المغامرة لا حدود لها ، وبمجرد أن تنتقل إلى الحقيقة وتدخل السوق وتواجهك أي خسارة ستتغير حالتك النفسية نهائيا . ينصح التعامل مع الحساب التجريبي لاكتساب الخبرة التشغيلية في كيفية تنفيذ الأوامر فقط ، لأنه يعلم العادات السيئة في كيفية التعامل مع الأموال على أنها لعبة . لا تعنى لك الخسارة شيئا ، البدء في الحساب الحقيقي يعلمك كيف تتجنب الخسارة .
-7 المتاجرة أثناء ساعات التوقف : هناك ساعات أثناء اليوم تفصل الأسواق الرسمية بين كل من آسيا وأوروبا وأمريكا تقوم البنوك وصناديق الاستثمار الضخمة بالاستفادة منها ويدفعون بالأسعار إلى أرقام يرغبون عقد صفقاتهم عندها حيث لا يوجد حجم كبير من المتداولين ومن يذهب ضحية لذلك هم صغار المتاجرون حين يتعلقون بعقود خارج نطاق أسعار السوق.
-8 المتاجرة بدون خطة: تحقيق الربح لا يمكن أن يكون يوما هو الخطة للتجارة ، خطة التجارة هي برنامج العمل لتحقيق النجاح ويجب أن تحدد أهدافك من السوق وإذا لم يكن لك هدفا هذا يعنى أنه لا يوجد لديك خطة وسوف تخسر في النهاية )هناك إحصائية تفيد بان 95% من الخاسرين يخرجون من السوق بسبب عدم وجود خطة لديهم).
-9 المتاجرة ضد اتجاه السوق: هناك اختلاف ضخم بين الشراء بسعر منخفض قبل ارتفاع السوق ، والشراء بنفس السعر أثناء انخفاض السوق ، في الحالة الأولى يكون لديك أرباحا جيدة وفي الحالة الثانية يكون سعر شراؤك هو أعلى سعر .
-10 الخروج الخاطيء من السوق : إذا دخلت في عقد وكان السوق يسير عكس اتجاهك تأكد أن تخرج بتوقيت جيد ، لا تحاول مضاعفة الخسارة ، إذا كان السوق يسير في الاتجاه الصحيح لا تقنع نفسك بالخروج سريعا لأنك متعب بل عليك التعامل مع التعب والإجهاد على انه جزء من عملك وفى المقابل لا تطمع كثيرا وعليك أن تحسن الخروج في موقع مناسب .
-11 خطأ المتاجرة قصيرة الأمد : إذا كانت أهدافك من الصفقة هو تحقيق ربح أقل من 20 نقطة ننصحك أن لا تدخل الصفقة ، عدد النقاط التي تدفعها بين الدخول والخروج تجعل احتمال الفرصة ضدك أكبر .
-12 الإصرار على الشراء بأقل سعر والبيع عند أعلى سعر: هذه الطريقة ربما تكون مفيدة في أرفف السوبر ماركت ، لكن في سوق العملات لا يمكن الإصرار عليها وألا فان السعر سيبتعد عنك وقد لا يعود مرة أخري.
-13 لا تحاول أن تكون ذكيا أكثر من اللازم: هناك إحصائية تبين أن أكثر المتداولين نجاحا هم خريجي مدارس ثانوية ويتعاملون بالسوق بطريقة بسيطة ولا يحاولون الذهاب إلى ما هو أكثر تعقيدا .
-14 لا تدخل السوق أثناء ورود الأخبار الاقتصادية : أغلب الحركات الكبيرة تحدث قبل وأثناء وبعد وقت الأخبار، حيث يكون حجم التداول ضخما وكمية العقود كبيرة جدا وتكون الحركة حقيقية وتأخذ اتجاها مطردا ، ومن غير المستحسن الدخول إلى السوق خلال هذه الفترة ، (قارن حركة السوق في الأوقات الهادئة عندما يكون السوق تحت سيطرة البنوك من خلال تجارة عملائهم).
-15 إهمال الأوضاع الفنية : إن تحديد وضع السوق من الناحية الفنية هل هو مرتفع ومناسب للبيع أو منخفض للشراء هو المفتاح الرئيسي للتوقع بالسعر القريب الذي يمكن أن يذهب إليه السوق أما الحركات المفاجئة والسريعة فهي غالبا ما تنتج عندما يكون السوق في اتجاه موحد.
-16 التجارة على أساس عاطفي : عندما تكون مضاربتك في السوق مبنية على اعتقادات عاطفية وليس أفكارا حقيقية ، تأكد أن العواطف تكون قاعدة فقيرة وتذكر أنه لا يمكن أداء الأشياء الهامة والجيدة في الحياة بناء على عواطفنا . -17 انعدام الثقة : تأتى الثقة غالبا من النجاح فإذا واجهتك الخسارة في أول بداية المضاربة بالسوق سيكون من الصعب بناء الثقة مرة أخرى ، لا تذهب إلى أنصاف الحلول ولكن عليك بالتعلم وكسب المزيد من المعرفة عن السوق قبل الرجوع مرة أخرى للمضاربة.
-19 قلة الشجاعة لتقبل الخسارة : لا يوجد بطولة أو جرأة للاستمرار في الخسارة فقط هناك الغباء والجبن ، حاول أن تبتلع خسارة اليوم وانتظر الغد وحاول مرة أخرى من جديد ربما تحقق أرباحا ، تذكر أن علاقتك بالعقد الخاسر ليست علاقتك بعقد زواج وأن السوق يمكن أن يتصرف بطريقة جنونية ضدك إنه مجرد عقد في سوق العملة وخسارتك له يمكن تعويضها وقد لا تؤثر في مجمل نتائجك الشهرية .
-20 عدم التركيز على العقود التي في متناول اليد : حين تبدأ بتخيل الأرباح وبناء أمنياتك المالية على أساس أنها واقعة لا محالة وتبدأ في التفكير في كيفية صرفها والاستمتاع بها وهي لم تتحقق بعد ، ونفس الشيء أن تبدأ بالقلق والتوتر من الخسارة التي لم تحدث ، تأكد أنك أصبحت خارج الواقع . بدلا من ذلك ركز على العقد المفتوح وتصرف بحكمة في وضع أمر التوقف وأمر الإغلاق في مواقع مناسبة وكن طبيعيا مثل رائد الفضاء يستريح ويستمتع بالرحلة وذكر نفسك بأنك ليس أنت من يسيطر على هذا السوق ويتحكم به.
-21 الفهم الخاطيء للأخبار: الحقيقة هي أن بعض الصحفيون يفهمون الأخبار الاقتصادية بشكل سطحي وهم في الغالب يركزون على عنصر واحد ويهملون البقية ، هذا يؤدي إلى وصول الأخبار مشوهة أحيانا ، عليك أن تتعلم قراءة الأخبار الاقتصادية من مصادرها الأساسية ، وعليك أن تتعلم المقارنة بين الأرقام والمعطيات القديمة والمتوقعة والتي صدرت للتو ، إذا كانت لغتك الإنجليزية لا تساعدك فهذه مشكلة أخري فاللجوء إلى من يترجم لك قد يفقد الخبر معناه ويجعلك تتصرف بطريقة غير مناسبة .
-22 هل كان الحظ بجانبك : قد يتغير رصيدك ويرتفع من خلال صفقات دخلت بها من غير تخطيط أو دراية وهذا لا يعنى أنك كنت ناجحا خلال تلك الصفقات وليست كل الحكاية بل ربما كان الحظ حليفك لفترة التداول السابقة ، والحقيقة التي غابت عنك هي أنك قد أهملت عامل المخاطرة لدرجة عالية جدا ولكنك كنت محظوظ بتجاوز تلك الصفقات بنجاح وجعلك تحصد الكثير من الأرباح ، عليك مراجعة صفقاتك الناجحة وضع احتمال خسارة واحدة أو مرتين واحسب كيف كان سيكون رصيدك ربما تفا جيء بأنه سيكون صفرا. المضاربون الناجحون هم الذين يتعاملون مع السوق بجميع الاحتمالات ويمكن أن يتقبلوا خسارة محدودة ليعودوا مرة أخري.
-23 الربح بطريقة الصدقة : عندما تحصل على ربح بطريق غير متوقعة من خلال صفقة كانت تبدو خاسرة 100% ولكن لظرف ما أو خبر طاريء تغير اتجاه السوق وحصلت على ربح مناسب ، لا تتوقع المفاجئات السارة دائما ولكن من الأفضل أن توظف هذه الأرباح في صفقة جديدة مدروسة .
-24 الشجاعة تحت النيران : عندما يقتحم شرطي مخبأ لعصابة فإنه يحطم الباب وهو يعرف أنه عرضة للنيران ويمكن أن يصاب في أي لحظة ولكنه يقوم بعمله بكل قناعة ولا يتردد ، وهكذا السوق والمتاجرة بالعملات من الطبيعي أن تكون خائفا ولكن عليك أن تقتحم السوق – بدون اقتحام ليس هناك تجارة وبدون تجارة لا يوجد أرباح .
-25 أفضل وقت للتجارة : 3 ساعات يوميا من التجارة النوعية المركزة هي أفضل ما يسمح به عقلك وأنت مرتاح ، أثناء وقت المتاجرة ومراقبة السوق يجب أن يكون التركيز 100% ، أما أنصاف الحلول فهي غير مجدية نهائيا ، لا تظن أن البقاء ساعات عديدة أمام شاشة الكمبيوتر هو مجدي دائما .

مقدمة في التحليل الاساسي

إن أكثر السائلين عن علاقة التحليل الأساسي أو المؤشرات الاقتصادية و تأثيرها على حركة سوق العملات يجدون غالبا أجوبة معقده تصعب عليهم فهم الموضوع. إن الغالبية تعلم عن المؤشرات الاقتصادية بشكل مفرد لكنها تجهل ماهية العلاقة بين المؤشرات وكيف تؤثر على بعضها البعض.مثال: نعلم جميعنا أن من الأخبار المحركة للسوق هو معدل رواتب الغير الزراعيين لكننا لا نستوعب عدم تحرك الأسعار لو أصدر هذا الخبر في بعض الاحيان. كما ان قليل من المضاربين يستطيع توقع تغير اسعار الفائدة والى اي اتجاه سيسير هذا التغير .ان معرفة مؤشر فردي بعينه بدون معرفة علاقته ببقية المؤشرات لا يفيدك بشئ ابدا. في هذه السلسلة سنتحدث في اربعة اجزاء عن هذا الموضوع. قد لاتكون شاملة لكنها محاولة لتبسيط الامر قدر المستطاع. و الالمام ببعض الامور التي تساعدك على الربط بينها حتى تكون قادرا على اتخاذ قرار تجارة صائب .في الجزء الاول من السلسلة سنتعرف الى نظام الاحتياطي الفدرالي الامريكي و تحديدا الدور الذي يلعبة في تطوير سياسة الحد من التضخم و في الجزء الثاني سنقدم مناقشه عامة عن المؤشرات الاقتصادية اما الجزء الثالث فسنستعرض اكثر المؤشرات اهمية وكيفية تحقيقي الربح بالاستفادة منها.اما الجزء الرابع فيشمل تلميحات وملاحظات في كيفية معالجة ودراسة البيانات الاقتصادية

ما هو الفوركس ؟

كلمة "الفوركس" تعني باختصار سوق العملات الأجنبية أو البورصة العالمية للنقود الأجنبية مما يناسب لكلمة "Foreign EXchange market " في اللغة الإنجليزية. و تتم المضاربة عن طريق شراء و بيع العملات الأساسية التي تحوز علي الحصة الأساسية من العمليات في سوق الفوركس وهي الدولار الأمريكي(USD) العملة الأساسية واليورو(EUR ) والجنيه الإسترليني(GBP) والفرنك السويسري(CHF ) والين الياباني(JPY).
و يتم شراء و بيع تلك العملات بالدولار الأمريكي أو العملات الأخرى فيما بينها مما يعرف بأزواج العملات و ذلك في مقابل الدولار الأمريكي أو أي عملة مقابل عملة أخرى في القيمة. و تعتبر المضاربة في العملات أربح تجارة في البورصات، وأكثرها مخاطرة أيضًا، بسبب التقلبات السريعة التي تقوم العملات بها من الاتجاه الصاعد إلي الاتجاه الهابط أو بالعكس. بالإضافة إلي سوق العملات توجد أنواع أخرى من البورصات هي: بورصات الذهب و الفضة، بورصة البترول، الأسهم و السندات، المحصولات الزراعية و الطاقة. أما بورصات العملات فتتميز بالمؤشرات المختلفة و التحليل الفني و التحليل الإخباري و سرعة الحصول علي الأرباح .
إن الحجم اليومي لتداول العملات في سوق الفوركس تصل إلي 3 ترليون دولار. و للمقارنة نذكر أن حجم نشاطات بورصة نيويورك للأسهم لا تتعدي 300 مليار دولار في اليوم، أي أنه يلزم نصف سنة لبورصة نيويورك لتصل حجم سوق العملات.
إن سوق الفوركس ليس سوقاُ بالمعني الحرفي للكلمة، إذ أنه ليس لديه مركزاُ و ليس لديه مكانا معينا تمارس فيه المتاجرة. إن المتاجرة تمارس عن طريق الاتصال التلفوني و الإنترنت بالحاسوب في وقت واحد بين مئات البنوك حول العالم. مئات المليونات من الدولارات تباع و تشتري كل بضع ثوان، و هذا هو ما يسمي المتاجرة بالعملات.
يجمع سوق الفوركس أربع أسواق إقليمية: ألاسترالية و الآسيوية و الأوربية و الأمريكية. و تستمر عمليات المتاجرة فيه كل أيام العمل، و يعمل السوق علي مدار الساعة أي 24 ساعة في اليوم. و يلاحظ هدوء نسبي من الساعة 20:00 و حتى 01:00 بتوقيت غرينتش، و يعزي ذلك لإغلاق بورصة نيويورك في الثامنة مساءاُ و بدء بورصة طوكيو العمل في الواحدة صباحاُ.
إن سوق العملات لا يتعلق بساعات عمل البورصات لان المتجارة تتم بين البنوك التي تقع في أنحاء العالم المختلفة. و تقوم أسعار العملات بتغيرات كبيرة متعددة مما يساعد علي القيام ببعض العمليات التجارية خلال يوم واحد. من المعروف أن للإنخفاضات تأثير كبير علي الأسواق المالية مما قد يؤدي إلي انهيار الأسهم أو السندات. أما سوق الفوركس فانخفاض الدولار الأمريكي (علي سبيل المثال) يعني صعود سعر عملة أخري و لا يوجد أي انهيار مثل أسوق الأسهم أو السندات.
تأسس سوق الفوركس (FOREX ) للمعاملات المالية بين البنوك عام 1971 عندما تحولت المعاملات في التجارة العالمية من استخدام قيم ثابتة للعملات لقيم التحويل. ويكون هذا ناتج مجموعة صفقات مالية يقوم بها وكلاء الأسواق المالية لتحويل كمية معينة من المال بعملة احدي البلدان لعملة بلد آخر بقيمة متفق عليها مسبقا لتاريخ معين. و يحدد سعر تحويل العملة المعينة بالنسبة لعملة أخري ببساطة: العرض والطلب للتحويل الذي يوافق عليه الطرفان.
إن حجم العمليات في سوق المال العالمي في نمو مطرد. يرتبط هذا بالتطور الكبير في التجارة العالمية و رفع الحظر علي العملات في كثير من البلدان. إن %80 من كل المعاملات هو عبارة عن مضاربات في سوق العملة الهدف منها الحصول علي أرباح من فروقات أسعار العملات. وتجتذب هذه المضاربة العديد من المشاركين سواء من المنظمات المالية أو المستثمرين الأفراد.
نتيجة للتطور الهائل في تكنولوجيا الاتصالات في العقدين الأخيرين تغير هذا السوق في حد ذاته لدرجة كبيرة. أن مهنة تاجر العملات التي كانت تحاط بهالة من السرية أصبحت جماعية تقريبا. إن الاتجار في العملات الذي كان إلى وقت قريب مقصورا علي البنوك الاحتكارية الكبرى أصبح في متناول الجميع نتيجة للتجارة الالكترونية. وحتي اكبر البنوك تحبذ تلك المتاجرة الالكترونية علي المعاملات الشخصية بين طرفين.
أن الهدف من سوق الفوركس كمجال لاستخدام إمكانيات الشخص المالية والعقلية والنفسية ليس هو ضربة حظ. إن البعض قد ينجح في ذلك ولكن ليس لأمد طويل. أن الميزة الأساسية لسوق العملات هي انه مكان للنجاح مستخدما الإمكانيات الفكرية.
ومن الخصائص المهمة لسوق العملات هي خاصية التوازن بالرغم من أن هذا يبدو غريبا. فالكل يعلم أن الخاصية الأساسية للسوق المالية هي هبوطه المفاجئ. ولكن سوق الفوركس يختلف عن سوق الأسهم في أنه لا يهبط. عندما تفقد الأسهم قيمتها يكون هذا انهيارا. أما إذا انهار الدولار مثلا فان ذلك يعني فقط أن عملة أخرى صارت اقوي- مثالا لذلك الين الياباني الذي صار في بضعة اشهر من عام 1998 اقوي بالربع تقريبا بالنسبة للدولار. هذا وقد وصل هبوط الدولار لبعض الأيام في تلك الفترة لعشرات في المائة. بالرغم من ذلك لم يحدث انهيار للسوق واستمرت المعاملات كالعادة، في هذا ينحصر ثبات سوق العملات وما يرتبط به من عمل، العملة هي بضاعة كاملة السيولة يمكن شراؤها أو بيعها في كل الأوقات.
يعمل سوق العملة كل الوقت من غير توقف ولا يرتبط بساعات العمل المعينة للبورصة، فالمعاملات تكون بين بنوك تقع في أجزاء مختلفة من الكرة الأرضية، إن تغيرات أسعار العملة تكون بدرجة ملحوظة ولمرات عدة تكون كافية للقيام بعدة عمليات في كل يوم، فإذا كان لديك تكنولوجيا متاجرة مجربة و مضمونة يمكنك جعلها مجال عمل لا تقارن بفعاليته فعالية أي مجال آخر، ولذلك نجد البنوك الكبرى تقتني اغلي المعدات وتستخدم عشرات أخصائي المتاجرة في الأقسام المختلفة لسوق العملة.
إن المصروفات للدخول في هذا العمل ليست كبيرة. وحقيقة فإن احتياجات العمل في هذا المجال من درس ابتدائي واقتناء حاسوب وشراء خدمة المعلومات وقيمة التأمين لا تتعدي كلها معاً بضع آلاف من الدولارات وهذا مبلغ لا يمكن استثماره بجدية في أي مجال آخر، ومع وجود العرض الهائل من الخدمات في هذا المجال من السهل إيجاد وكيل متمرس في سوق العملة، ما تبقي بعد ذلك يعتمد علي المتاجر، نستخلص من هذا أن النجاح في هذا المجال يعتمد عليك شخصياً أكثر منه في أي مجال عمل آخر.
إن الشئ الأساسي للنجاح في هذا السوق ليس حجم المال الذي تدخل به السوق بقدر ما هو التركيز الدائم عل دراسة السوق، وفهم ميكانيكياته ورغبات المشاركين، ينتج عن ذلك تحسين متواصل لطريقة عملك وتنظيم متاجرتك، هذا ولم يحدث أن نجح شخص في سوق العملات اعتمد علي رأس المال فقط.
لقد قطع نظام العملات العالمي طريقاً طويلاً في الألف عام من تاريخ البشرية ولكن التغيرات التي تحدث فيه اليوم الأكثر تشويقاً ولم تكن لتخطر علي بال أحد من قبل، هناك تغيران أساسيان يحددان الشكل الجديد للنظام العالمي للعملات:
• إن النقد ينفصل انفصالاً تاما الآن عن أي حامل مادي.
• لقد مكنت تكنولوجيا الاتصالات وتبادل المعلومات القوية من جمع النظم المالية للبلدان المختلفة في نظام
مالي عالمي واحد.
الخصائص الجذابة لسوق الفوركس
• السيولة: يستند السوق علي أموال طائلة غير محدودة تمكن من فتح وإغلاق أي صفقة بالأسعار المحددة للعملات في تلك اللحظة، لدي الدرجة العالية من السيولة جاذبية هائلة لأي مستثمر إذ أنها تعطيه حرية فتح وإغلاق أي صفقة و بأي حجم.
• الفعالية: نسبة لعمل السوق علي مدار الساعة فإنه ليس علي المتاجرين في السوق الانتظار للتفاعل مع حدث معين كما يكون الحال في البورصات و الأسواق الأخرى.
• مرونة المعاملات: يتميز نظام المتاجرة في السوق بالمرونة إذ انه يمكن فتح الصفقة لوقت محدد سابقا حسب رغبة المستثمر الشئ الذي يمكنه من أن يخطط مسبقا نشاطاته القادمة.
• التكلفة: ليس لسوق الفوركس تقليدياً أي مصروفات عمولة أو أي مصروفات اخري عدا مصروفات - أو أرباح - الفرق بين سعر العرض وسعر الطلب(BID/ASK ).
• الأسعار الموحدة: نسبة للدرجة العالية من السيولة في السوق نجد أن الغالبية العظمي من عمليات البيع يمكن أن تنفذ بسعر موحد، الشيء الذي يجنب المستثمر مشكلة التذبذب التي تقابله في سوق البيع المستقبلي أو البورصات و أسواق النقد الاخري حيث تباع في وقت معين وبسعر محدد فقط كمية محدودة من العملة.
• اتجاهية السوق: إن لدي حركة أي من عملات السوق اتجاه معين يمكن تتبعه لأي فترة ليست بالقصيرة، وتعطي كل عملة محددة تغير لسعرها مع الزمن خاص بها فقط، الشئ الذي يعطي المستثمر إمكانية التعامل في السوق بحنكة.
• حجم الهامش: يحدد في سوق الفوركس حجم القرض المسمي بالهامش أو الكتف فقط الاتفاق بين المتعامل وذاك البنك أو مكتب السمسرة الذي يعطيه المخرج للسوق ويكون عادة 1:100 أي بدفع الزبون تأميناً قدره 1000 دولاراً يمكنه عقد صفقة تساوي100 ألف دولاراً، أن استخدام هذا الهامش الكبير مع تقلبات أسعار العملات يجعل هذا السوق مربحاً و لكنه كبير المجازفة كذلك.
مفهومان خاطئان:
هناك مفهومان خاطئان عن سوق الفوركس أولهما أن العمل في هذا السوق يشابه اللعب في الروليت - واحد يربح كمية كبيرة من المال ويخسر الباقون، ومن الطبيعي تكون المجازفة كبيرة، ولكن الفوركس ليس لعبة روليت، ففي تغير أسعار العملات تلعب قوانين معينة، أولاً تعتمد قيمة العملة المعينة علي مؤشرات اقتصاد البلد المعين. وثانياً تحددها أفضليات وتوقعات المتعاملين في السوق، وبالرغم من صعوبة عمل التوقعات لكنها ممكنة، أن العمل في سوق الفوركس يؤكد ذلك نسبة لان التحليلات تتضمن ايجابيات أكثر من مصادفات.
إننا اليوم نجد أن المجازفة والمخاطرة جزء لا يتجزأ من القيام بنشاط عمل في ظروف السوق، أي ببساطة يمكن القول أن القدر الحقيقي لنجاح أي مشروع أو صفقة يمكن أن يختلف عما كان متوقعاً عند اتخاذ القرار، ولكن المضاربة في سوق المال تعتبر الأكثر مجازفة وخطورة لأنه يمكن الخسارة نسبة لتعقد وصعوبة التنبؤ بسلوكيات السوق ولا يمكن أبدا ضمان نتيجة إيجابية، أن هذه الحقيقة تنفر الكثيرين من العمل في سوق المال بالرغم من انه أصبح في متناول الجميع بفضل تكنولوجيا الاتصالات الإلكترونية والقاعدة الضخمة لتحليل المعلومات.
المفهوم الثاني الخاطئ هو أن ربح شخص ما يجب أن تعادله بالضرورة خسارة آخرين. ولكن المضاربة في سوق الفوركس ليست هي في حالات كثيرة علي حساب تغير أسعار العملة، لأنة توجد مجموعة كبيرة من المشاركين يستخدمون عمليات تغيير العملات لأغراض أخرى (الاستيراد والتصدير، الاستثمار والسياحة) لا تلعب تذبذبات الأسعار لأوقات قصيرة دوراًٌ هاماً بالنسبة لهم، وبفضل حرية تغيير العملات العالمية الأساسية الحرة بسعر عائم يحدده العرض والطلب تصبح عملية تغيير العملة في حد ذاتها مصدر دخل، أي أن العملة هي بضاعة مثلها مثل أي بضاعة اخري.
إن سوق العملات حقيقة مثله مثل أسواق النقد الأخرى لا يكون أبداً في حالة توازن، إن حالته يمكن وصفها بأنها حالة بحث دائم عن توازن منزلق.
ما هو المطلوب للنجاح في سوق العملة؟ أن المركبات الأساسية للوصول لذلك يمكن تشكيلها كالآتي:
• التنبؤ الصحيح باتجاه تغير أسعار العملات.
• تحقيق الحد الادني من الخسارة عندما تكون حالة السوق غير سارة.
• التعامل المدروس مع الأموال المستخدمة في المتاجرة.
إن التنبؤ الصحيح بالأسعار يعتمد علي الدراسة العميقة للسوق، عادة تعين ثلاثة أشكال تحليلية للسوق: تحليل إخباري وتحليل فني وتحليل نفسي. ويكون الجمع المدروس والصحيح لهذه التحليلات الثلاثة هو الضمان للتنبؤ الصحيح في سوق العملة.
التحليل الإخباري يتضمن دراسة العوامل الاقتصادية والسياسية التي قد تؤثر علي سوق العملات، مثال لذلك تقارير سياسات بنك الاحتياطي المركزي الأمريكي، ومعاملات الاقتصاد الأساسية، وتصريحات رجال الدولة المهمين والأحداث المهمة الأخرى، والهدف الرئيسي للتحليل الأساسي هو تحليل العوامل الرئيسية وتأثيرها علي ديناميكية الأسعار في سوق العملة، أن المتاجر في سوق الفوركس يكون دائما علي إلمام بالوضع الراهن عالمياًٌ.
التحليل الفني وهو تحليل لحالة السوق ترتكز علي التغيرات السابقة للأسعار، وتستخدم في هذا التحليل الرسومات البيانية التي تعكس تغيرات الأسعار لفترة زمنية معينة، ويمكننا التحليل الفني كذلك من فهم حالة السوق العامة في الوقت الحالي، وبمؤشرات عدة يمكن التنبؤ بتغيرات الأسعار في المستقبل القريب، إن التحليل الفني يرتكز علي حقيقة أن حركة الأسعار تأخذ في الاعتبار كل العوامل التي يمكن أن تؤثر علي السوق - اقتصادية وسياسية ونفسية والعوامل الأخرى - أخذت كلها مسبقاً في الاعتبار عند تحديد الأسعار، و إذا كان السوق حقا سوقا فستتكون حركته نتيجة لقرارات عدد هائل من المشاركين اتخذوها بعد تحليلاتهم لقدر هائل من المعلومات عند قيامهم بعقد الصفقات، إن سلوك الأسعار هو نتيجة هذه القرارات، وبمراقبته يكون لديك مدخلاًً لكل المعلومات في هذا السوق، إن ما يلزم المتاجر حقيقة هو قليل - أن يعرف اتجاه حركة الأسعار- والتحليل الفني يعطي كماً هائلاً من الأدوات تمكننا من استخلاص تنبؤات مفيدة من الرسومات البيانية للأسعار.
التحليل النفسي هو تحليل سلوكيات المتاجرين في السوق وحالتهم النفسية وتوقعاتهم وآمالهم وتخوفاتهم. وهذا النوع من التحليل مهم جدا لان نسبة صحته عالية جداً. ويجب أن لا ننسي أن خلف محطات الحاسوب التي تعطي توقعات الأسعار بشر وعلي تصرفاتهم تعتمد في نهاية المطاف أسعار العملات.

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الأربعاء، 20 فبراير 2008

Never Break these Forex Rules

In this section we will be covering the few important rules that should never be broken in trading. If you can apply these rules consistently, and with the right amount of discipline, you will be well on the way to being a profitable trader. The following are rules that can significantly improve your chances of success if they are understood, practiced, and implemented consistently in your trading. These rules have been learned the hard way, mostly through trial-and-error, and the inevitable mistakes that everyone makes when they start a trading business.
Set up and Implement specific goals and objectivesFew things are more important to your trading success than having set specific goals and objectives for what you are trying to achieve. It is amazing to me how often we hit our targets, meet our objectives, and reach our goals best when we speak aloud and write them down.
For any business to be successful it must have measurable objectives that you are actually able to achievable. In trading, the primary objective is obviously to make money, but it is important to have other objectives that are not strictly cash-related.
We must always remember that reward and risk go hand-in-hand in trading and that we can’t expect to achieve high returns without planning and bracing for high risk (draw-downs).
Your objectives and goals have to be very specific to you, but they must also include the following characteristics if they are going to be useful:
• Be measurable in accordance to completion and timeframe involved• Be realistic and achievable• Be worth the time and effort involved• Be positive
As an example, here are some actual objectives (Please bear in mind that this is only a partial list):
• Create 2 new positive-expectancy trading systems each and every year• Seek to make less errors implementing your trading systems each year• Work to achieve a return to maximum draw-down ratio of 1.5:1• Take 2 weeks vacation from trading during each year
You should also note that only one of them is meant to be about making money, and that has a measurable objective that is very similar to a draw-down, and it is not guaranteed. If you know what you are trying to gain in your trading, and when you are trying to achieve it, the whole of your efforts will be more focused on meeting your objectives.
This also helps to guide you to only pay attention to things you really want to achieve with your time and resources that you have available. This will also give you a way that you can effectively measure the success and progress of your trading strategy.
Generally traders who have well-defined objectives will be much more successful than those that do not have pre-defined goals.
Consistency and disciplineIn order for you to be able to realize the full potential of your trading systems it is very important that you take every trading entry, adjust every stop, and close out every trade when your pre-defined trading system says you should.
This takes an extreme amount of confidence in your trading systems, good and reliable technology, and the unwavering discipline to stick to your trading plan no matter what happens.
The good thing about have an underlying assumption about being consistent and disciplined is that you have a pre-defined plan for every situation that you may face in your trading, so that you know how you are defining what being consistent really means. Your plan needs to include at least the following items in it if it is going to be successful:
• All of your trading rules for entering, adding to, and getting out of your positions
• What you are planning to do if your trading computer, internet connection, broker, power, telephone etc. fails to be of any real use or break down
• What you will do if for some reason you are unable to trade
• What you will do if you lose a certain percentage of your account
• What you will do if all the markets are closed and you can’t get out of your current positions
Unless you write down the answers to all these scenarios, you cannot be properly consistent and disciplined in your approach to trading and if you lose money you will not know if it is because you didn’t follow your plan, your plan is incomplete, your systems do not work, or if it is because you are simply going through a losing period.
Let your profits runThis rule is undoubtedly the key to being a successful trader. It is in these three simple words however that are easier said than done. When we get a profitable trade going it is our natural fear of losing the unrealized cash starts and we truly want to close it out now and quit while we are ahead.
Most trading actually consists of long periods of small winners and losers, that is quickly followed by a few huge winners that make the difference between overall profitability and simply breaking even or even losing thanks to the trading costs(commissions, spread, and slippage).
It is our ability to let the huge winners become huge. This is what determines how we will perform overall during the course of the year. The key here is in letting a winning streak run is to have trailing stops that are generally outside the daily noise of the market so that they are not so tight as to get stopped out during ‘normal’ trading process.
This means that you need to be prepared to give up a relatively large portion of a winning trade’s open profit and it is also the thing that makes this so hard to implement. In fact, we should be adding to a winner and widening stops rather than trying to figure out how tight our stops can be to capture the largest amount of profit.
The trade has already shown you if it intends to be a winner, and the chances are it is a low-risk idea if you were to add to the position now rather than ‘strangle it’ with stops that are too tight.
It is very important that your management rules leave room for large winning trades, and that the rules are pre-defined and understood before you place the trade in the first place. This will allow you to stick to your rules when you do get the big winner.
Cut your losses shortThis is actually the sister rule to the one mentioned above, and is usually just as difficult to do (even if it is very easy to define). In the same way that profitability comes from a few large winning trades, capital preservation so comes from avoiding the few large losers that the market will see fit to send you each year.
Setting a maximum loss point before you enter the trade so you know ahead of time approximately how much you are risking on this position is pretty straight up.
You just have to have an exit price that tells you that your trade is a losing one you should exit before it gets any bigger. Because of gaps at the open, or limit moves in futures we can never be 100% sure that we can get out with our maximum loss, but simply having the rules, and always sticking to them will save us from the nasty trades that just keep on going against our position until we have lost more than many winning trades can make back.
If you have a losing position that is at your maximum loss point, you should just get out right away. You can’t hope that it will turn around for as it isn’t common sense.
Being that trades are either winners or losers, and this one is shouting ‘Loser’ at you, the chances that it will turn around and become a large winner is decidedly small.
Why would you want to risk any more money on a trade that has already shown itself to be a loser when you could simply close it out (accept the loss) and move on. This will leave you in a much better place financially and mentally, than holding on to your position and hoping it will go back your way.
Even if it did do this, the mental energy and negative feelings from holding the losing position are just not worth it. this is why you should always stick to your rules and exit a position if it hits your stop point.
Never add to a losing tradeOne of the few trade management rules that you should never break is ‘Never add to a losing trade’. Trades are split into winners and losers, and if a trade is a loser, the chances of it turning right around and becoming a winner are too small for you to want to risk more money on. If it actually is a winner disguised as a loser, why not wait until it shows it is a winner before you add to it.
If you do this you will notice that nearly every time the trade ends up hitting your stop loss and does not change direction. Sometimes the trade turns around before it hits your stop and becomes a winner and you can count yourself very lucky if it does.
Sometimes the trade hits your stop loss and then turns around and becomes a winner and you can count yourself unlucky. Whatever happens, it is never worth adding to a loser, hoping that it will eventually be a winner. The odds of success are just too low to risk more capital in addition to the initial risk.
Don’t take too much riskOne of the most devastating mistakes that any trader can make is in risking too much of their capital on a single trade. One thing is certain in trading and that is if you lose all your capital you are out of the game indefinitely. Why should you risk so much when you could be prevented from continuing?
There is a useful saying in poker than going all-in works every time but once. It is the same thing in trading. If you risk all of your account on every trade it only takes one loser to wipe you out, so you will be out of the game at some point as it is only a question of time.
In general, you should only risk 1-3% of the available capital allocated to a system on any individual trade. This is calculated using the size and, the difference between our entry price and our maximum stop price, and the amount of capital that is allocated to the system.
With these things combined we are almost certain never to lose all of our trading capital. In fact, the chance of us hitting our maximum drawdown for the year is extremely low.
All trades that you make should be of a size that almost seems pointless to your future fortune. If you are worried about the size of a trade then it is too big and you should use a lower amount immediately.
Remember that longevity in any trading market is the key to making money by trading. You should trade slowly over a long time with minimal risk, is always preferable to rapidly with too much risk.
Only trade positive expectancy systemsIf you have a positive expectancy trading system, the only factors that will decide how much money you will make per year are the number of trades the system actually makes, how much capital you allocate to the system, and how accurately you use the trading signals.
If you do not know whether your trading system is positive expectancy then it makes no sense for you to be trading it in the first place. Expectancy is calculated using the profit or loss on each trade; divided by the initial risk, and then taking the average of this number of a series of trades. Systems that have positive expectancy will make money most of the time and those with negative expectancy will lose money.
Successful traders only trade systems when the odds of success are in their favor so that they know that making money is the final result of accurately implementing the system and not just pure luck.
You will want to minimize all of you trading business costsSome trading systems can offer you only marginal profitability, and trading implementation costs (commission, spread, and slippage) can be the difference between making a profit and making a loss.
With the simple availability of modern electronic brokers, and fully-automated trade processing and execution, it is definitely worth the effort in looking for a very low cost way to implement your trading system.
High commission, wide spreads, and large amounts of slippage can be lowered drastically and easily by carefully choosing the right broker. This can be the difference between a system being useable or not. Paying too much for trade implementation is a way to lose money that you can actually avoid.
Educate yourselfIn order for you to be able to compete at the highest level in the trading business and be a successful player, you must be well-educated about what you are doing. Being well-educated means that you have thoroughly researched and tested your trading ideas and know why your trading system worked in the past and is still working.
It means that you understand all the technology and applications that your system needs to perform with accuracy. It means understanding your goal and objectives and how trading will help you achieve them. It means understanding yourself and how your personality will affect your results.
In order to succeed as a forex trader, you really need to become an expert in your own trading business to understand how it the dots are all connected, when it is broken, and how it can be improved. This takes commitment, hard work, dedication, and more hard work.
Avoid trading scared moneyNo one ever made any money trading when they had to do it to pay their bills at the end of the month. Having a requirement to make a certain amount of dollars per month or you will be financially in trouble is the best way I know to completely mess up all trading discipline, rules, objectives, and leads faster than you’d expect to disaster.
Trading is about taking a reasonable amount of risk in order to achieve a good reward. The markets and how and when they give up their profits is nothing that you can control. You should never trade if you need the money to pay bills. Do not trade if your business and personal expenses are not covered by another income stream or cash reserve. This is how hasty decisions are made.
Dealing with your lossesOne of the most important rules of Forex trading is to keep your losses as small as possible. With small Forex trading losses, you can outlast those times when the market moves against you, and be well positioned for when the trend turns around.
The one proven method to keeping your losses small is to set your maximum loss before you even open a Forex trading position.
The maximum loss is the greatest amount of capital that you are comfortable losing on any one trade. With your maximum loss set as a small percentage of your Forex trading effort, a string of losses won’t stop you from trading for any particular amount of time. Unlike the 95% of Forex traders out there who lose money because they haven’t implemented wise money management rules to their Forex trading system, you will be ok with this money management rule.
To use as an example- If I had a Forex trading float of $2000, and I began trading with $200 a trade, it would be reasonable for me to experience three losses in a row. This would reduce my Forex trading capital to $800. It would then be decided that they’re going to bet $400 on the next trade because they think they have a higher chance of winning after having lost three times already.
If that trader did bet $200 dollars on the next trade because they thought they were going to win, their capital could be reduced to $500 dollars. The chances of making money now are practically nil because I would need to make 150% on the next trade just to break even. If the maximum loss had been determined, and stuck to, they would not be in this position.
In this case, the reason for failure was because the trader risked too much money, and didn’t apply good money management to the play. Remember, the goal here is to keep our losses as small as possible while also making sure that we open a large enough position to capitalize on profits and minimize losses. With your money management rules in place, in your Forex trading system, you will always be able to do this.

السبت، 16 فبراير 2008

46 Successful Forex Trading Tips


There is no doubt that forex trading requires more than a few quick tips for success
However, for the average beginner and those who perhaps are losing their focus because of significant draw-downs, keeping things simple can help to introduce much needed focus into your trading
To that end, here are some tips that you can use for trading that can help you get a handle on these exciting markets
1. Never add to a position that is losing. 2. Always determine a stop and a profit objective before you start entering a trade. Place stops that are based on market information, and not your account balance. If a "proper" stop is too expensive, it isn’t worth it to make the trade
3. Remember the power of a position. You should never make a market judgment when you have a position
4. Your decision to exit a trade means that you are able to perceive changing circumstances. You shouldn’t think you can pick a price, exit at the market
5. In a Bull market, you never want to sell a dull market, in Bear market, you should certainly never buy a dull market
6. There are times, due to a lack of liquidity, or excessive volatility, when you should not trade at all 7. Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market. It is good to know this and remember it8. There are at least three types of markets like up trending, range bound, and down trading, and you should have a different trading strategy for each
9. Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS there, and it is only that one is always more dominant. In an up market, for example, it is very easy to take sell signal after sell signal, only to be stopped repeatedly. Select trades that move along with the trend. 10. A buy signal that fails is really just a sell signal. A sell signal that fails is a buy signal
11. It's always easier to enter a losing trade
12. During the blowout stage of the market, up or down, the risk managers are usually issuing margin call position liquidation orders. They don't generally check the screen for overbought or oversold; they just keep issuing liquidation orders. It is best to make sure that you don't stand in the way. 13. It’s good to be superstitious; in that you shouldn’t trade if something bothers you
14. Buy the news that you hear, sell the factual news
15. News is only important when the market doesn't react in the direction of the news
16. It helps for you to read today's paper tomorrow. When you read yesterday's paper each day with the knowledge of what the market already did, it will remind you that what happened yesterday has nothing to do with what will happen today
17. You should never enter a new trade in the direction of a gap. Never let the market make you make a trade. 18. The first and last tick are always the most expensive. Get in late and out early
19. When everyone else is in, it's time for you to get out
20. Never trade when you are sick
21. You should only change your unit of trading under a plan of attained goals. You should also have a plan for reducing size when your trading is cold or market volume is down
22. Confidence is a bad thing. Remember, you really don't know anything unless you are a broker. You need to expect the unexpected. Always know your position and exit your trade immediately whenever you feel uneasy
23. Measure yourself by profitable consecutive days and not by individual trades
24. The best way to break a streak of consecutive loses is to not trade for a day. 25. Don't stop trading when you’re on a winning streak
26. Don't turn three losing trades in a row into six in a row. When you’re off, turn off the screen, do something else. Sticking in when you are loosing is just silly27. Scalpers reduce the number of variables effecting market risk by being in a position only for a few seconds. Day traders reduce market risk by being in trades for minutes
28. If you convert a scalp or day trade into a position trade, technically you did not consider the risks of the trade properly. 29. You should not worry about a missed opportunity. There is always another one just around the corner
30. If you look for secrets in the market you will only find things that no one cares about. It is better to use the tools, which will be covered in the next section
31. Never ask for someone else's opinion, they probably did not do as much homework as you did anyways. 32. When the market is going up, you should say it aloud. When the market is going down, you want to say that aloud too. The reason for this is that you’d be amazed at how hard it is to say what is literally going on in front of you when your mind is full of preconceived opinions
33. Successful day trading requires flexibility. You have to do your homework so that you can understand the full potential for both sides of the market. This will allow you to make your trades based on what the market is doing at the time of the trade
34. Here is a quote that would be good for you to remember: “When you wake up, your instincts are wrong.”
35. When you make a mistake of discipline, whine like a fool to anyone that will listen. Any errors that are made in discipline are mistakes you will keep on making for many years. Wearing ashes and sack cloth may help you to extend the time before you do it again
36. If you whined or got fidgety while you read this list, then you share two obvious characteristics with many other traders
A. You have traded long enough to recognize that you (not the market) make mistakes, and you try to overcome them
B. This fact is awkward, you have become part of the market and you can never leave. No matter where life takes you, you will always check the market and you will also always want to continue being a part of it
37. For small accounts ($25,000 and under), like I said before you need to trade with the trend. Many beginners look for trades that flow in any direction. While forex trading easily permits bi-directional trading, trading in the direction of the trend improves your odds over the long run. 38. You should have at least two accounts. One real account and the other a demo account. Learning doesn't stop when trading real dollars begins. Keep the demo account and use it to test any alternative trades etc. For example, you can shadow your real trades with identical ones in your demo account, but you will want to widen your stops in the demo in an effort to see if you're being too conservative. 39. You have to stop looking for leading indicators because there aren't any. While some firms make a lot of money selling software that predicts the future, the reality is that if those products really worked, they wouldn't be telling you about it. 40. Examine the daily charts, the four-hour charts and one-hour charts are there to assist you in timing your trades. While you are trading at 30- and 15-minute time increments, it takes a great deal of dexterity
41. Don't trade the time frame that is offered. Trade the pattern instead. Reversal patterns, hesitation patterns and breakout patterns show up a lot. Learn to look for the pattern in any time frame
42. If you have the right amount of money, trading two lots is safer than just trading one. Trading three lots is safer than two etc. Trading is a big pile of emotions, technical analysis and money management. One lot alone makes it difficult to weigh these elements in deciding to enter or exit
43. Extreme trading can be the most conservative trading when you think about it. Trading at the extremes increases the odds that you have chosen the right direction
44. You should fully check the Big Five the dollar/yen, euro/dollar, Swiss franc/dollar, euro/yen and pound/dollar before you decide to take a position in any one of them. There might be something obvious that you’ve missed. 45. Follow the Upside Down Rule. If you can turn a chart upside down and it still looks the same, avoid it all together. 46. Don't keep count of your profits in your first 20 trades. Keep track of the percentage of wins instead. Once you know you can pick direction, profits can be increased with multi-plot trading and by using variations in your stops. In other words, now is the time to get serious about your personal money management

الجمعة، 15 فبراير 2008

Central Banks

Australia's central bank likely to hike rates in March - economists
Mon, Feb 11 2008, 05:52 GMT
SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was likely to hike rates for the second straight month in March unless growth and demand data deteriorates significantly before then, economists said Monday following a strongly worded quarterly monetary statement from the central bankThe RBA said that monetary policy would likely need to be tightened in the absence of a further shift in economic risks to the downsideNAB Capital Markets said it now expected the central bank to hike rates following its March 4 board meeting, after previously expecting the central bank to wait until at least May when it would have been able to assess first quarter inflation data due for release in late April
"The RBA has painted a picture of a domestic economy which is overheating, leading to inflation above their target band and likely to stay there for the coming two years," said Rob Henderson, chief economist at NAB Capital MarketsThe continuation of a tightening policy comes at a time when major central banks are cutting rates in attempt to maintain economic growthIn the US, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate by 150 basis points in the past two months, fearing the world's largest economy may be slipping into recession
But the RBA is more worried about inflation, believing that continued strong growth in China, India and the smaller east Asian economies will mean Australia's economic growth will still remain healthy even though it trimmed its growth forecastsThe central bank aims to keep annual inflation growth in a 2-3 percent range but in the fourth quarter of 2007 headline inflation rose to 3.0 percent year-on-year while the underlying core measures of inflation rose to around 3.5 percent
Forecasts raised
The RBA, in its monetary statement, raised its near-term inflation forecasts to peak at 3.75 percent in the second quarter this year before easing to 3.50 percent in the final quarter and 3.25 percent in 2009It cut Australia's growth outlook to 3.25 percent for the year to June, from a 3.75 percent forecast in its previous quarterly statement released in NovemberFor calendar 2008, the RBA is now expecting GDP growth to average 3.25 percent"This is a slowing only back to around trend -- not big enough to ensure inflation returns to the target band in a reasonable time," Henderson said
He said such a hawkish statement from the RBA, clearly stating that interest rates will have to rise unless the economic situation deteriorates significantly, was rareThe central bank hiked its target cash rate a quarter percentage point to 7.00 percent last Tuesday following two quarter percentage point rises in August and November last year. The rate is now at the highest level in 12 yearsHenderson said it would take more than a pullback in local economic indicators or further bad news out of the US to deter the RBA from further rate hikes"Probably an economic meltdown which damaged the outlook for the Asian economies is now necessary to prevent another rate hike in quick succession," he said.
"Since a major shock in Asia seems unlikely and cannot be forecast, we expect the RBA to hike in March."
He said at this stage NAB Capital Markets would put a 40 percent chance on a further rise above 7.25 percent"On the RBA's forecasts, an aggregate hike of 50 basis points or more might be needed to ensure that inflation comes back to 3.0 percent or lower in their forecasting period," Henderson said
"Such a move would make it more certain to us that the RBA will need to cut rates in 2009."
CommSec chief economist Craig James said the central bank had issued a strong warning of inflationary expectationsIn its statement the RBA said "most importantly, if it is not reversed reasonably quickly, the recent pick-up in inflation carries the risk of generating an upward drift in inflation expectations, which could feed back into wage and price-setting behaviour"
"Barring fresh turmoil in financial markets, we expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points in March and then a further 25 basis points in May," James said"The second rate hike may not be necessary, but no one should underestimate the Reserve Bank's resolve in getting inflation back under control."
James said the language from the central bank is especially tough and direct, but understandably so as inflation was not only above the bank's target band but it was expected to remain there
"The Reserve Bank has upped the ante on its jawboning, hoping that tough words will bring action. But these are no empty threats -- if inflationary pressures fail to ease, the Reserve Bank will continue to hike rates," he said
RBA "worried"
Westpac Banking Corp chief economist Bill Evans said the decision to highlight specific point forecasts so far out in contrast with the previous policy of defining inflation ranges, emphasises how worried the RBA must be"The Reserve Bank has shocked us with their obvious extreme concerns about the inflation outlook," Evans saidHe expects a further rate hike next month with the risk of further tightening as domestic demand has so far remained resilient to policy tightenings"The decision making process will now be firmly driven by the domestic demand data," Evans said
He said the RBA's statement after next month's meeting would make it very clear that the bank reasonably expected that the risks for policy beyond the next expected hike were weighed towards further tightening.
The RBA's hawkish statement sent the Australian dollar back over 90 US cents after falling below that level last week as the US dollar strengthened against the euro.
"On the simple matter of rate differentials and recent moves in bulk commodity prices, our view has been that the Aussie should have been trading at higher levels but probably two things have been holding it back -- last week the US dollar was stronger while the other thing has been concerns about world growth and risk aversion," said Tony Morriss, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank"Near-term the pressure looks to be building so that we can go back and test 91 (US cents) -- some good support is now coming back in as it's just hard to argue against the Aussie before the next meeting."
Morriss said Australia's terms of trade would also support the currencyThe RBA noted conditions in coal and iron ore markets have tightened further, and most analysts had revised up their forecasts for contract prices of the two bulk commodities in 2008"Based on these developments, the prospects are that Australia's terms of trade will rise further this year, after the sharp increases already seen over the past four years," the central bank saidMorriss said the Australian dollar could suffer if there was another bout of risk aversion following a rout on global share markets, though the currency was becoming less sensitive to moves by these markets"Some of the correlations are breaking down between the Aussie and equity markets -- I think that's a reflection of the change and clear tone of the RBA in that they are going to take rates higher," he said
He said the currency could suffer from a marked deterioration in global economic growth but the RBA doesn't think this will occurWhile acknowledging the rapid downturn in the US, and a slowdown in other major developed economies, for the first time the RBA questioned the impact of a G7 slowdown on China, though it concluded that developing country growth remains strong
"They seem to be comfortable with the outlook because our terms of trade are so high and because of the issues with coal and iron ore," Morriss said
The two bulk commodities rate among Australia's biggest export earners

الأربعاء، 13 فبراير 2008

Understanding Forex Spreads

Forex is always priced in pairs between two different types of currencies. When you make a trade, you have to buy one currency and sell another at the same time. If you want to exit the trade, you must buy/sell the opposite position. For example, when you think the price of the Euro is going to rise against the US Dollar. In order for you to enter a trade, you will have to buy Euros and sell US Dollars
If you want to leave the trade, you will have to sell Euros and buy back US Dollars. You will be hoping that you were right in your guess and that the exchange rate for EU/USD has actually risen, which means that you will get more Euros back than when you bought them, which is how you will make a profitThese days just about every forex broker is claiming to have the tightest spreads in the industry. But marketing does have the ability to be deceiving. The topic of spreads in the forex spot market is very complicated and often not easy to understand. However, nothing affects your trading profitability more
First of all in order to understand the spread, you need to
know what it is. A spread is the difference between the ask price (the price you buy at) and the bid
price (the price you sell at) that is quoted in the pips. If the quote between EUR/USD at a given moment is 1.2222/4, then the spread equals 2 pips. If the quote is 1.22225/40 , then the spread is going to equal 1.5 pips
The spread is how brokers make their money. Wider spreads will result in a higher asking price and a lower bid price. The consequence to this is that you have to pay more when you buy and get less when you sell, which makes it more difficult to realize a profit
Brokers generally don’t earn the full spread, especially when they hedge client positions. The spread helps to compensate for the market maker for taking on risk from the time it starts a client trade to when the broker's net exposure is hedged which could possibly be at a different price
Spreads are important because they affect the return on your trading strategy in a big way. As a trader, your sole interest is buying low and selling high (like futures and commodities trading). Wider spreads means buying higher and having to sell lower. A half-pip lower spread doesn't necessarily sound like much, but it can easily mean the difference between a profitable trading strategy and one that isn’t profitable
The tighter the spread is the better things are going to be for you. However tight spreads are only meaningful when they are paired up with good execution. Quality of execution will decide whether you actually receive tight spreads. A good example of this is when your screen shows a tight spread, but your trade is filled a few pips to your disadvantage or is mysteriously rejected
When this occurs repeatedly, it means that your broker is showing tight spreads but is effectively delivering wider spreads. Rejected trades, delayed execution, slipping, and stop-hunting are strategies that some brokers use to get rid of the promise of tight spreads
Spreads should always be considered in conjunction with depth of book. Oddly enough, when it comes to economies of scale, forex doesn't even act like most other markets. On the inter-bank market, for example; the larger the ticket size, the larger the spread is. So when you see a 1-pip spread on an ECN platform, you have to wonder if that spread valid for a $2M, $5M or $10M trade, which it probably isn’t. In many cases, the tight spread that is offered applies only to a capped trade sizes that are very inadequate for most of the common trading strategies
Spread policies change a great deal from broker to broker, and the policies are often difficult to see through. This certainly makes comparing brokers much more difficult. Some brokers actually offer fixed spreads that are guaranteed to remain the same regardless of market liquidity. But since fixed spreads are traditionally higher than average variable spreads, you are paying an insurance premium during most of the trading day so that you can get protection from short-term volatilityOther brokers offer traders variable spreads depending on market liquidity. Spreads are tighter when there is good market liquidity but they will widen as liquidity dries up. When it comes to choosing between fixed and variable rates, the choice depends on your individual trading pattern. If you trade primarily on news announcements that you hear, you may be better off with fixed spreads. But only if quality of execution is good
Some brokers have different spreads for different clients based on their accounts. For example; those clients that have larger accounts or those who make larger trades may receive tighter spreads, while the clients that are referred by an introducing broker might receive wider spreads in order to cover the costs of the referral. Some offer the same spreads to everyoneProblems can come up when you are trying to learn about a company's spread policy because this information, along with information on trade execution and order-book depth is rather difficult to get. Because of this, many traders get caught up in all of the promises they hear, and take a broker's words at face value. This can be dangerous. The only real way to find out is to try out various brokers or talk to those who have

الثلاثاء، 12 فبراير 2008

Daily Forex Forecast

FXDREAM EUR/USDDate: Tue, 12 February 2008 13:10:05Resistance levels: 1.4600/1.4670/1.4760Support levels: 1.4500/1.4420/1.4370EUR/USD has risen further towards 1.4600 Resistance earlier today after better than expected ZEW Sentiment Index from Germany No change in our view. The break beyond 1.4780 signals for retest of 1.4965 record highs and even 1.50 psychological level in longer term First important Resistance comes near 1.4600. A break above this level is needed for resuming the upmove towards 1.4670 over today and tomorrow and 1.4760 in longer term On downside, a break below 1.4500 first Support is needed for further downmove towards 1.4430-20 region and 1.4370 previous bottom over the next trading days
Strategy-neutral
FXDREAM GBP/USDDate: Tue, 12 February 2008 13:10:04Resistance levels : 1.9560/1.9660/1.9700Support levels: 1.9450/1.9400/1.9330GBP/USD has risen above 1.9560 next Resistance earlier today despite weaker than expected UK Consumer Price Index( y/y) numbers at 2.2% No change in our view. On the upside, further recovery towards 1.9660 and even 1.9700 may be seen over today and tomorrow On the other side, there is important Support at 1.9450 now Below this levels is needed for retest towards 1.9330 previous bottom in longer term. Trade from Long side for test towards 1.9660 after UK CPI Release later today
Holding GBP/USD Long at 1.9565,Stop-loss-1.9525,Take profit-1.9630( 1.9685)
FXDREAM USD/JPYDate: Tue, 12 February 2008 13:10:03Resistance levels: 107.60/107.90/108.50Support levels: 106.80/106.00/105.00/104.20USD/JPY has broken beyond 107.00 first Resistance towards 107.50 highs earlier today No change in our view. The bias remains bearish for further downmove below 106.00 and even towards 104.20 in longer term as long as price remains below 107.80-90 key Resistance level First important Support comes at 106.80 ahead of 106.00 key one On the upside, a break above 107.80-90 area again signals for reversal in the bias and test of 108.50 and 110.10 in longer term
Strategy-neutral
FXDREAM USD/CHFDate: Tue, 12 February 2008 13:10:02Resistance levels: 1.1070/1.1120/1.1190Support levels: 1.1000/1.0950/1.0870/1.0830USD/CHF has traded ranged near 1.1000 first Support earlier today A break below 1.0950 key one is needed for resuming the downmove towards 1.0870 over today and tomorrow and 1.0730 bottom in longer term First key Support comes at 1.0950 now ..On the upside, as long as price holds beyond 1.1000 first minor Support further squeeze higher to 1.1070 in mid term and retest of 1.1100-20 area later this week is not ruled out
Strategy-neutral
FXDREAM EUR/JPYDate: Tue, 12 February 2008 13:10:01Resistance levels: 156.50/157.00/157.50Support levels: 155.00/154.30/152.10The Cross has risen further towards 156.50 important Resistance earlier today On the uspide side , a break above 156.00-50 Resistance area signals for reversal towards 157.50 over today and tomorrow and higher in longer term On downside, a break below 155.00 first Support again is needed for resuming the downtrend towards 154.00 and 152.10 bottom in longer term
Strategy-neutral

UK money market rates

UK money market rates
Tue, Feb 12 2008, 15:23 GMT
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - INTERBANK OFFERED RATES
OVERNIGHT 5.33
1 WEEK 5.35
1 MONTH 5.57
2 MONTHS 5.58
3 MONTHS 5.63
4 MONTHS 5.61
5 MONTHS 5.59
6 MONTHS 5.57
9 MONTHS 5.50
12 MONTHS 5.42
DEPO CDs
1 MONTH 5.54 - 5.46
2 MONTHS 5.58 - 5.50
3 MONTHS 5.63 - 5.55
4 MONTHS 5.61 - 5.53
5 MONTHS 5.59 - 5.51
6 MONTHS 5.57 - 5.49
9 MONTHS 5.49 - 5.39
12 MONTHS 5.41 - 5.31
CLEARER CDs
1 MONTH 5.54 - 5.46
2 MONTHS 5.58 - 5.50
3 MONTHS 5.63 - 5.55
4 MONTHS 5.61 - 5.53
5 MONTHS 5.59 - 5.51
6 MONTHS 5.57 - 5.49
9 MONTHS 5.49 - 5.39
12 MONTHS 5.41 - 5.31
LOCAL AUTHORITY DEPOSITS
2 DAYS 5.25
7 DAYS 5.30
1 MONTH 5.52
3 MONTHS 5.62
6 MONTHS 5.58
12 MONTHS 5.45
EURODOLLAR DEPOSIT
OVERNIGHT 3.06 - 3.00
7 DAYS 3.13 - 3.08
1 MONTH 3.13 - 3.08
3 MONTHS 3.10 - 3.00
6 MONTHS 3.00 - 2.90
12 MONTHS 2.80 - 2.70
EURODOLLAR CDs
1 MONTH 3.06
3 MONTHS 3.00
6 MONTHS 2.88
12 MONTHS 2.73

الاثنين، 11 فبراير 2008

Brokers Criteria

General criteria to choose a Forex Broker to trade withBefore you decide to trade forex, you will have to choose which broker or dealer is the most compatible with your trading style and requirements. You should ask a few questions before opening an account with a forex broker to determine which company best meets your needs1. Is the broker or dealer regulated? If so, in which country is it regulated
Not all countries regulate the same way, nor do they have the same regulatory environment and requirements when it comes to financial registration. Therefore, it is important for any investor/trader to choose a foreign exchange broker that is based in a country where their activities are monitored by a regulatory agency. It is also important to know if the broker or dealer is regulated in an on- or off-shore country, as the latter can be more liberal with registration requirements
Countries with dedicated regulatory agencies includeUSA
UK
Eurozone
Japan
Australia
Switzerland
All types of traders need to be aware of their broker or dealer’s regulatory status and have a clear understanding of the regulatory body that governs forex activity where the selected broker or dealer does business
2. Is the company a broker or a dealerUnderstanding the nature of a broker versus a dealer is always an important task, as there are currently a few different types of companies to work with for over-the-counter forex trading (OTC FX)
(a) Dealing directly with a market maker or “dealer.” Each market maker has a “dealing desk,” which is the traditional method that most banks and financial institutions use. Market makers provide two-way pricing to customers throughout the day. These prices sometimes are quoted on a “fixed” basis, meaning that they do not move throughout the day, while other firms use a dynamic spread system, which means the prices change as the liquidity in certain pairs change. The market maker interacts with other market makers banks to manage their global FX positions/risk. Each market maker offers a slightly different price in a particular currency pair based on their global FX book. Banks, investments banks, broker/dealers, and FCMs make up the majority of this category. Market makers are compensated by their ability to manage their global FX risk. This may include spread revenue, netting revenue, and revenue on swaps and conversions of residual profits or losses(b) Dealing with a broker. A broker acts as a conduit between a customer and a market maker/dealer. The broker sends the customer’s order to another party to be executed by the dealing desk of the market maker. The spreads that the customer receives are dependant on the market maker or dealer that the broker routes the customer’s transactions through, and either a fixed or dynamic system can be used. Brokers generally charge fees for this service and/or are compensated by the market maker for the transactions that they route to the market maker/dealing desk(c) ECN brokerage model. In OTC forex, there is currently a modified broker method labeled “ECN.” This is not to be confused with the ECN term used in equities; they are different models altogether. The concept in OTC FX is very similar to point b above, except for the fact that the ECN acts as a broker to a variety of market makers or dealing desks. Each dealer sends a price to the ECN as well as a particular amount of volume that a quote is “good” for, and then the ECN distributes that price to the customer. The ECN is not responsible for execution, only the transmission of the order to the dealing desk from which the price was taken. In this system, spreads are determined by the difference between the best bid and the best offer at a particular point in time on the ECN. In this model, the ECN is compensated by fees charged to the customer plus a “kick-back” or “rebate” from the dealing desk based on the amount of volume or order flow that it is given from the ECNIt is important to point out that an ECN usually shows the volume available for trading each bid and offer, so the trader knows what maximum trade can be placed. ECN volume is only a reflection of what is available on any one ECN, not in the overall market. The market maker still sets its volume based on its comfort with its liquidity at any one point in time. The market maker’s responsibility is to provide liquidity under all conditions to its customers
3. How reliable is the broker’s trading platform
Depending on an individual’s hardware and software characteristics, one might prefer a desktop application or a web-based (java) application. Understanding which type of platform suits you best is critical for trading
It is also important to make sure that the trading platform does not crash or freeze often, especially during times of global economic news or events, when traders needs stability. The reliability of a platform should be more of a concern than its look and feelAn aggressive trader, or one who likes to make large, frequent trades, will always have to look for a stable platform that never or very rarely crashes. On the other hand, a passive and conservative trader who does not watch the market round-the-clock could be more flexible
4. What are the costs of trading
One must be aware of all the costs associated with trading with a certain broker and how the costs compare to those of other brokersCosts include the pip spread (the difference between the bid and ask prices), overnight interest and any other applicable transaction feesFor example, a broker offering a two-pip spread with a $12.50 commission per trade is more expensive than a three-pip spread broker, though the smaller spread may appear more attractive at first glance."Flashy" tight spreads in one or two majors can be deceiving, as they don’t call attention to inconsistent or wider spreads throughout the majors and crosses spread, so traders don’t get an accurate overall view of the broker’s procedures. Furthermore, brokers offering tight spreads may re-quote (offer a new quote, different from the original one) a price, increasing the costs per transaction and thus widening the spread "invisiblyAnother important factor is to know the broker’s stop-loss and limit policy. Depending on the policy, a trader may end up with closing prices that are worse than expected, as if the trade had higher execution costsAn important point traders should be aware of is how much volume they can trade at a single point in time without having to face a re-quote or even the lack of ability to place a trade. The trader is responsible for asking the broker about the liquidity it has for its clients and what happens if liquidity dries up\5. What are the real dealing size boundaries\Traders who place large orders will want to know the answer to this question. Traders whose buying power could exceed $10 million at any one time will need to look for a firm that has enough liquidity to guarantee a fill for their orders in most trading situations\6. Is the trading platform truly "user-friendly"\In trading terms, user-friendly means that placing an order or closing a trade can be done immediately. One-click trading and management of stop-loss, limit and other order types are advantages that a trader may want to take into account\In addition, it is helpful for the overall navigation of a platform to be user-friendly. If a platform offers additional charts and tools, they should be fairly simple to access and apply\This is a critical point for an aggressive trader (intraday/scalp) whose dependence on the trading platform is far greater than a moderate or conservative trader\7. Is the broker offering any added-value services\Easy access to real-time charts, news and economic data is a must for any trader. However, a trader must think of these and any other added-value service as part of the broker’s package rather than as the most important feature on which to base a decision.\This is a point a trader of any nature should address correctly to make sure the firm complies with the basic standards of providing real-time charts, news and economic events
Having someone always available to help answer questions and fix problems quickly are points a trader should look for when deciding which broker to open an account with. Customer service should not only be able to fix a trader’s occasional problem, but also be able to help prevent problemsThis point makes no distinction between the different types of traders, as all traders should view this as an important point9. Leverage and margin call policies
Foreign exchange traders tend to like higher leverages and sometimes choose a broker based only on this feature. However, traders should remember that although higher leverage can lead to higher profits, it also increases the level of risk. Also, take into account that there are brokers that offer fixed leverage levels, but some others adjust their leverage based on the currency that is being traded and may also have special policies for carrying a trade over the weekendTraders should also take into account their broker’s margin call policy. Some companies follow the FIFO (first in first out) method to close trades when margin requirements are not met by current equity, others follow the LIFO (last in first out) procedure, and some simply close all the trades. Depending on one’s preferences, this is an issue that should be clearly identified before opening an accountLeverage levels are more of a concern for aggressive traders who like to use the highest possible leverage, whereas a moderate or conservative trader would be happy with the average leverage levels

News and Events


Daily Forex News
Dollar steady after G7 weekend meeting


The Dollar is holding mostly steady early on Monday after a weekend meeting of industrialized nations passed with little comment on currencies, though the Euro found some support as the ECB challenged talk of early rate cuts. The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers cautioned that the global credit crunch would drag on the world economy but left it to individual countries to take their own remedial action. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet who warned the market not to bet on a cut in interest rates because of persistent inflation pressures in the euro zone. Euro zone finance ministers also sounded relatively relaxed about the Euro's strength against the US Dollar. However, Investors still seem to be betting that Europe has not de-coupled completely from the United States and will be impacted badly enough to force a policy easing in coming months. Such speculation dragged the EurUsd down 3cts or 2.01% last week, taking it as low as 1.4440 at one point. On Friday, EurUsd edged up 0.26% to 1.4564. Ahead of Monday expected thin market as Tokyo is close while China is still celebrating Lunar New Year. UsdJpy was sitting at 107.31, unchanged, as risk aversion kept the Japanese currency underpinned. The biggest mover on Friday had been the Canadian dollar, which jumped after strong domestic employment data seemed to argue against aggressive rate cuts there. However, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney on the weekend said further rate cuts would likely be needed even though the economy had proved resilient so far. UsdCad was down 1.04% to 0.9989 at Friday close. AudUsd was holding firm at 0.8956, benefiting from speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise rates again, having lifted them to an 11-year peak of 7% last week. The central bank issues its quarterly statement on monetary policy later on Monday and is expected to talk tough on inflation, leaving the door open for more tightening if the red-hot economy did not cool soon

News and Events




Dollar steady after G7 weekend meeting


The Dollar is holding mostly steady early on Monday after a weekend meeting of industrialized nations passed with little comment on currencies, though the Euro found some support as the ECB challenged talk of early rate cuts. The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers cautioned that the global credit crunch would drag on the world economy but left it to individual countries to take their own remedial action. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet who warned the market not to bet on a cut in interest rates because of persistent inflation pressures in the euro zone. Euro zone finance ministers also sounded relatively relaxed about the Euro's strength against the US Dollar. However, Investors still seem to be betting that Europe has not de-coupled completely from the United States and will be impacted badly enough to force a policy easing in coming months. Such speculation dragged the EurUsd down 3cts or 2.01% last week, taking it as low as 1.4440 at one point. On Friday, EurUsd edged up 0.26% to 1.4564. Ahead of Monday expected thin market as Tokyo is close while China is still celebrating Lunar New Year. UsdJpy was sitting at 107.31, unchanged, as risk aversion kept the Japanese currency underpinned. The biggest mover on Friday had been the Canadian dollar, which jumped after strong domestic employment data seemed to argue against aggressive rate cuts there. However, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney on the weekend said further rate cuts would likely be needed even though the economy had proved resilient so far. UsdCad was down 1.04% to 0.9989 at Friday close. AudUsd was holding firm at 0.8956, benefiting from speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise rates again, having lifted them to an 11-year peak of 7% last week. The central bank issues its quarterly statement on monetary policy later on Monday and is expected to talk tough on inflation, leaving the door open for more tightening if the red-hot economy did not cool soon
The Risk Today
EurUsd Dropped by 2.01% last week at 1.4504 having posted 1.4440 low. Medium term trading range is now 1.4366 – 1.4952. Market traded as low as 1.4940 on Wednesday. Market is turning over 1.4500 pivot support, where below it, market might look down for 1.4280 next support after trendline support holding 1.4311 December low. Initial resistance holds 1.4652 yesterday high
GbpUsd Cable lost 0.98% last week in a second consecutive lower market, returning below 1.9590 (38.2% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1161 advance). Further pressure below 1.9500 might open the door toward 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Return in uptrend might be only confirmed over 2.0000 key level before 2.0100 resistance. Initial resistance holds 1.9590 former support
UsdJpy It remains weak below 108, having tested 104.97 low 23rd January and 105.77 low in February. Initial resistance holds 107.89 and strong resistance holds 110.10 mid January double top ahead of 111.92 early January high. Pressure will be relieved over 108. Meanwhile, current trend may look for 106 support and next 104.97 support ahead of 104.20 trendline supportUsdChf Posted a 2 ½ week high Thursday at 1.1104. Initial resistance holds 1.1123 late January high. Market might look for 1.1130 (38.2% of 1.1603 – 1.0838 decline)
Early January double top 1.1191 marks strong resistance. Initial support holds 1.0933 Thursday low, 2 figures away from previous week low 1.0732

Forex Gameplan Lesson

Forex Gameplan Lesson #3Fundamental Forex Strategy
Basic FOREX StrategyTechnical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two basic areas of strategy in the FOREX market which is the exact same as in the equity markets. However, technical analysis is by far the most common strategy that is used by individual FOREX traders. Here is a brief overview of both forms of analysis and how they directly apply to forex tradingFundamental AnalysisIf you think it's hard enough to value one company, you should try valuing a whole country instead. Fundamental analysis in the forex market is often an extremely difficult one, and it's usually used only as a means to predict long-term trends. However it is important to mention that some traders do trade short term strictly on news releases. There are a lot of different fundamental indicators of the currency values released at many different times. Here are a few of them to get you started
· Non-farm Payrolls · Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) · Consumer Price Index (CPI) · Retail Sales · Durable Goods
You need to know that these reports are not the only fundamental factors that you have to watch. There are also quite a variety of meetings where you can get some quotes and commentary that can affect markets just as much as any report. These meetings are often brought out to discuss any interest rates, inflation, and other issues that have the ability to affect currency values
Even changes in how things are worded when addressing certain issues such as the Federal Reserve chairman's comments on interest rates; can cause a volatile market. Two important meetings that you have to watch out for are the Federal Open Market Committee and Humphrey Hawkins HearingsJust by reading the reports and examining the commentary, it can help FOREX fundamental analysts to get a better understanding of any and all long-term market trends and also to allow short-term traders to be able to profit from extraordinary happenings. If you do decide to follow a fundamental strategy, you will want to be sure to keep an economic calendar handy at all times so you know when these reports are released. Your broker may also be able to provide you with real-time access to this kind of informationTechnical AnalysisJust like their counterparts in the equity markets, technical analysts of the FOREX trading market analyze price trends. The only real difference between technical analysis in FOREX and technical analysis in equities is the time frame that is involved in that FOREX markets are open 24 hours a day
Because of this, some forms of technical analysis that factor in time have to be modified so that they can work with the 24 hour FOREX market. Some of the most common forms of technical analysis used in FOREX are
· The Elliott Waves · Fibonacci studies · Parabolic SAR · Pivot points
A lot of technical analysts have a tendency to combine technical studies to make more accurate predictions on your behalf. (The most common method for them is combining the Fibonacci studies with Elliott Waves.) Others prefer to create trading systems in an effort to repeatedly locate similar buying and selling conditions
Choosing Your StrategyMost successful traders will develop a strategy and perfect it over a specific period of time. Some people will focus on one particular study or calculation, while still some others use broad spectrum analysis as a means of determining their trades. Most experts would likely suggest that you try using a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis, with which you can make long-term projections and also determine entry and exit points. Of course, in the end, it is the individual trader who has to decide what works best for him.
When you are ready to get started in the FOREX market, you should open a demo account and paper trade so that you can practice until you can make a consistent profit. Many people who fail have a tendency to jump into the FOREX market and quickly lose a lot of money because of a lack of experience. It is important to take your time and learn to trade properly before you start committing capital
You also need to be ale to trade without emotion. You can’t keep track of all stop-loss points if you don't have the ability to execute them on time. You must always set your stop-loss and take-profit points to execute automatically, and don't change them unless you absolutely have to. Make your decisions and stick to them. Otherwise you will drive yourself and your brokers crazy\You should also realize that you need to follow the trends. If you go against the trend, you are just messing with your money because the FOREX market tends to trend more often than anything else and you will have a higher chance of success in trading with the trend\The FOREX market is the largest market in the world, and every day people are becoming increasingly interested in it. But before you begin trading, make sure your broker meets certain criteria, and take the time to find a trading strategy that works for you

الأحد، 10 فبراير 2008

Forex: The Only

Trading, whether it is stocks, commodities, or derivatives (like futures and options) can be a very lucrative business to be in.With the decision to become a trader, you must also choose what type of market you will focus on and what instruments you will trade. Will it be shares of publicly traded companies, commodity future contracts like oil and gold, or currencies.Most of the financial markets that exist in the world today are within the framework of a central exchange, and for that reason they are limited in their scope and daily trading volume. Every market except one, which is the foreign exchange currency market.The foreign exchange (forex) market has no central exchange, and instead it exists only as a highly interconnected web of bank servers and individual brokers. The 'over the counter' type of trading tends to be much larger in scope than trading centered around a central exchange (such as the NYSE), and for the reason the forex market is hands down the largest financial market in the world with daily volume surpassing $2 Trillion USD.The forex market is the only true global market that exists, as it is not based in one specific country and instead is created by the perpetual buying and selling of banks and financial institutions in every major city, 24 hours per day.Unlike traditional exchange-based markets which have set times that they are open and closed, the forex market literally follows the span of daylight around the planet.When you are a forex trader you need to be familiar with the term 'global trading day.' The global trading day begins with the London market open hours (about 3AM New York time) and continues across all the major cities and time zones.There are three distinct times throughout the global trading day when there is the most trading activity (and consequently the most liquidity). These times are based around the open-hours of the three major cities in the world where the largest volume of forex activity takes place: London, New York, and Tokyo.So what does this mean for you, the trader? Because the forex is a global market and there are no set open and closed times, it is possible to trade at any time during the day (except on weekends).It also means that due to the level of daily trading volume, this market is very liquid and it is virtually impossible to get 'stuck' with an open position.Because of these lucrative trading features, many firms and brokers have sprung up to cater to the large demand of forex market access. Many of these companies offer highly advanced trading platforms that feature very low commission trading and seamless market entry/exit.All in all, forex trading is by far one of the coolest ways around to make money today, since all you really need is a broadband-enabled laptop and a funded trading account to make money from anywhere in the world